Are Lawmakers and Stakeholders Ready for the Silver Tsunami? -

Last week, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released a projection that shows Medicare enrollment will grow by more than 30 percent in the next decade alone, and the number of seniors will steadily rise from 55 million today to more than 80 million by 2036. This is often referred to as the Silver Tsunami. The challenge of responding to this explosive expansion of Medicare is going to drive policy in health care for the next decade.

Regardless of who is the President or what party controls Congress, Medicare’s demographic surge will force policy makers to find ways to reduce health care spending to save other spending priorities from being crowded out. On its current trajectory, CBO projects the national debt to increase by $9.4 trillion to $30 trillion by 2026. Spending on federal health programs now exceeds spending on Social Security. With interest on the national debt a growing and untouchable line in the budget, the next Administration and Congress will need to reduce health care costs if they want to fund priorities in defense, transportation, education and other discretionary spending.