Minnesota’s adult-use cannabis bill was signed into law by Gov. Tim Walz on May 30, making The North Star State the 23rd to legalize cannabis. Soon after establishing its Office of Cannabis Management (OCM or the “Office”), the State of Minnesota will conduct a study to determine the expected size and growth of the cannabis industry. This study will estimate the anticipated demand for cannabis flower and products, as well as the number and geographic distribution of cannabis businesses the Office anticipates are needed to meet that estimated demand. While the state’s study will not be complete until January 15, 2025, we can make some general predictions about the market.
Minnesota Cannabis Market Projections
There are approximately 5.7 million Minnesota residents. Based on customer data from other adult-use states, we can expect about 15% of the adult population, or approximately 650,000 people, to purchase cannabis each month. This means that by 2029, the Minnesota cannabis market is expected to reach $1.5 Billion dollars.
The below graphs from materials presented during our Cannabis Business in Minnesota: An Entrepreneur’s Guide to the New Industry event in Minneapolis on June 14 show existing and projected sales figures for Minnesota.
Minnesota Cannabis Retail License Estimates
While it is ultimately up to the Office of Cannabis Management to determine the total number of cannabis business licenses it will make available, we can make some predictions about retail license opportunities.
While not a requirement, the Minnesota law does allow local governments to limit the total number of licensed adult-use retailers (e.g. cannabis retailers, microbusinesses, and mezzobusinesses) by population: No more than one location per every 12,500 residents. Given this restriction, if the ten largest cities in Minnesota all opt to enact this cap, they would still have more than 100 retail license opportunities available:
