It has been a bit more than a year since we dove into the Department of Health’s demographic data. Historically, we looked at the range of cases (divorce, support, custody) to assess trends. This year, because we did not see any real changes in that data, we report a bit on what is happening with Pennsylvania families. It’s interesting to this writer because Americans are having a vocal debate about “family values” and how those values intersect with government regulation.

On a five year basis from 2016-2020 we have an average of 135,000 children born each year. The days of concerns about teenage mothers seem to be in the rear view mirror; the number of teen births, at 3.8%, is at an all time low. The trends are toward deferring childbirth as shown here:

We should note that between 1946 and 1965 we had more than 200,000 births each year. Today, 135,000 births corresponds almost precisely to the number of deaths each year in a state with 13 million residents. Thus, a little more than 1% born each year and just over 1% die.

Like childbirth, marriage continues to take a hit. We see 70,000 marriages each year and 32,000 divorces. Aside from 2020 when quarantine reduced both marriages and divorce, the trends seem to be consistent. With a smaller population we used to host 100,000+ marriages each year. Ironically, the highest number of divorces were granted in the 1970s before Pennsylvania adopted a non-fault system (1980). The divorce “business” used to produce 40,000 decrees annually, so those numbers are down substantially. But, recall that if you don’t have a marriage (i.e., people choose to live together) you don’t need a divorce. Meanwhile, the number of licensed lawyers in the Commonwealth has grown immensely. In 1980 the Supreme Court had licensed 32,000 lawyers. Today, that number is 330,000. Some of those 330,000 lawyers have moved on, retired or died but the note that we have declines in marriage and static childbirth. That’s not a growing market by any means.

At the risk of using an antiquated word, we looked at trends in “legitimacy.” Less than 58% of the children born in Pennsylvania have parents who are married. We often hear that the absence of marriage is an urban trend. The data do not support that. Yes, only 45% of Philadelphia births involved married couples. But the same is true of Schuylkill, Luzerne, McKean and Fayette counties. In our wealthiest counties (Chester and Montgomery) 75% of children are born to married couples. Yet neighboring Delaware and Bucks counties are consistent with the state average of 58%.

Marriage is also being deferred. Only 1.5% of the population marries before age 20 and only 14% marry between 20-25. From here the data show:

How long do marriages last where there is a divorce? 20% of divorces come before five years and another 26% take place between 5-9 years. There is then a downward trend between 10-24 years of marriage to an average of roughly 13%. From there it steps down again to 7% after 25 years of marriage.

Lastly, age is an interesting issue as we are a “graying” state. Of 13 million residents just over half are at the prime working ages of 25-65. The rest are over 65 or under 25.

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