A recent study by the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (“Berkeley”) reports that the solar energy generation system will continue to grow over the next few years with “significant expansion . . . both in terms of volume and geographic distribution.” Berkeley studied utility-scale solar projects such as ground-mounted photovoltaic, concentrating photovoltaic and concentrating solar thermal power systems larger than 5 MWac. The Berkeley study analyzed annually updated utility-scale solar project costs and prices, operating costs, capacity factors and power purchase agreements through the end of 2014.
Key findings of the report note the following:
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Installed project costs have declined by more than 50% from about $6.3/W in 2009 to $3.1/W in 2014;
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Newer projects are generating electricity more efficiently with projects completed in 2013 performing with an average capacity factor of 29.4% (in AC watts) in 2014 versus an average capacity factor of 26.3% and 24.5% in 2014 realized by projects built in 2012 and 2011, respectively;
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The pricing of megawatt hours (MWh) under solar power purchase agreements has declined significantly by almost $25/MWh per year on average from 2006 through 2013, with a smaller decline of about $10/MWh in 2014 and 2015.
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Based on the total capacity of utility-scale solar projects being developed through the end of 2014, the utility-scale solar market is spreading to new regions, other than California and the Southwest, including the Central U.S. with 6% capacity and the Northeast with 6% capacity.
The Berkeley report is in line with predicted trends in Maryland based on the State’s Renewable Portfolio Standard, which requires that 2% or about 1,200 MW of the State’s energy be derived from solar by 2020. As of late December 2013, Maryland had about 158 MW of installed capacity, of which 67 MW were derived from utility-scale solar projects. See Berkeley Lab Electric Markets and Policy Group, Utility-Scale Solar 2013: An Empirical Analysis of Project Cost, Performance, and Pricing Trends in the United States (last visited Nov. 25, 2015).
