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Post-Midterms Analysis, Nov. 18, 2022

As votes continue to be counted, it is clear the election was unexpectedly tighter—and better for Democrats—than most observers expected. While a handful of House races remain undecided, our current view is while Republicans...more

Midterms State of Play, Nov. 4, 2022

Less than a week out from Election Day, Republicans appear to be in the driver’s seat, leading or narrowing deficits in many key House and Senate races. At present, FiveThirtyEight projects Republicans have an 85% chance to...more

Midterms State of Play, Oct. 28, 2022

With less than two weeks to go until Election Day, and early voting already taking place in several battleground states, recent polling results and spending trends continue to indicate that the electoral environment is...more

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