Overview
Ohio held its Primary Election on Tuesday, March 19, 2024. Featuring several crowded races and many incumbents facing challengers, election night yielded some interesting results with fairly low voter turnout of about 1.1 million Ohioans voting out of 7.9 million registered electors.
As anticipated, at the top of the Ohio primary ballot, Ohio voters in Democratic and Republican primaries selected President Joe Biden (D) and former President Donald Trump (R) as the winner of Ohio’s presidential primary races.
Below is an analysis of the U.S. Senate primary, the congressional primaries, and the many Ohio House and Ohio Senate primaries. All results noted in this memorandum are based on the preliminary, unofficial results.
Summary of 2024 Primary Election Results
S. Senate
U.S. Senator Sherrod Brown (D-Cleveland) will face Cleveland-area car dealer and businessman Bernie Moreno, who prevailed in a three-way Republican primary. Moreno defeated State Senator Matt Dolan (R-Chagrin Falls) and Secretary of State Frank LaRose (R-Upper Arlington). Former President Trump’s influence on the Republican Party remained apparent when his endorsement catapulted Mr. Moreno into the lead in public polls and, ultimately, with an 18-percentage point win on Tuesday with Mr. Moreno winning all of Ohio’s 88 counties along his path to primary victory.
Senator Brown has won tough reelection challenges previously, but Ohio Republicans are hoping 2024 is a banner year for the GOP, allowing them to finally defeat the three-term Senator. This race will be one of the most watched and competitive races in the country with the control of the United States likely hanging in the balance.
S. House of Representatives.
Several of Ohio’s congressional districts had crowded Republican primaries. State Rep. Derek Merrin (R-Monclova Township), thanks in part to a late breaking endorsement from former President Trump shortly before voting began on Election Day, defeated former State Rep. Craig Riedel (R-Defiance) and will face Marcy Kaptur (D-Toledo), the current longest serving member of Congress in the nation.
Republican Congressman Brad Wenstrup (R-Cincinnati) announced his intention to retire earlier this year, resulting in a crowded, Republican primary of 11 candidates. With so many candidates, David J. Taylor, an attorney and businessman from Clermont County, won the race with only 25.4% of the vote. The district is heavily Republican and therefore Mr. Taylor is expected to win in November.
Former Congressman Bill Johnson (R-Marietta) resigned to become the President of Youngstown State University, creating a special election to fill his current term. Governor DeWine set the special primary for the 6th congressional district seat to be held on Ohio’s Primary Election date. The special election for the congressional seat is scheduled for Tuesday, June 11, 2024, with the winner serving the remainder of Congressman Johnson’s term. State Senator Michael Rulli (R-Salem) and Representative Reggie Stoltzfus (R-Paris Township) ran against one another in the primary, with Rulli announced the winner. Senator Rulli also won the primary for the right to run for a full term beginning in 2025.
Ohio Supreme Court.
There was only one contested primary for the Ohio Supreme Court. Eighth District Court of Appeals Judge Lisa Forbes (D-Cleveland) defeated Franklin County Common Pleas Judge Terri Jamison (D-Columbus) in the Democratic primary to finish the remainder of Supreme Court Justice term that expires December 31, 2025. Judge Forbes will face Franklin County Common Pleas Judge Dan Hawkins (R-Columbus).
Three of the seven seats on the Ohio Supreme Court are contested on the November ballot. Current Justices Melody J. Stewart (D-Cleveland) and Michael P. Donnelly (D-Cleveland Heights) are up for reelection in 2024. Justice Joe Deters (R-Cincinnati) will face Justice Stewart. Justice Donnelly will be running against Judge Meagan Shanahan (R-Cincinnati). The November 2024 General Election will be the second statewide election showing party affiliation alongside Ohio Supreme Court candidates’ names (and Court of Appeals candidates) on the ballot.
Ohio General Assembly.
Many legislators are seeking to switch chambers, including several Senators facing term limits. Notably, President Matt Huffman (R-Lima) is running for election in his former Ohio House seat, and many speculate that he will seek to take the Speaker seat once elected. Other current House members potentially switching chambers include Rep. Willis Blackshear (D-Dayton), Rep. Beth Liston (D-Dublin), Rep. Casey Weinstein (D-Hudson), Rep. Tom Patton (R-Strongsville) and Rep. Susan Manchester (R-Waynesville). Most, but not all, face General Election opponents.
Many incumbent House members faced primary challengers, including many who supported Speaker Jason Stephens (R-Kitts Hill) over Rep. Derek Merrin (R-Monclova Township) for Speaker of the House at the beginning of the current General Assembly in January 2023. Critics referred to those Republican members as the “Blue 22” because they joined with House Democrats to elect Speaker Stephens. Twelve of the “Blue 22” were up for reelection and four ultimately lost their primaries. Current Ohio House members who lost their primary elections include: Jon Cross (R- Findlay), Sara Carruthers (R-Hamilton), Brett Hudson Hiller (R-Uhrichsville) and Gail Pavliga (R-Atwater). Additionally, Forhan (D-South Euclid) lost his primary race.
In the Ohio Senate, the two incumbents survived their challenges, with Senator George Lang (R-West Chester) and Sandra O’Brien (R-Ashtabula) both winning.
A few primary races are too close to call at this time and we will monitor those results for any recounts and the official canvass which will occur in the next few weeks.
Key Local Races.
In Franklin County, Columbus City Council Member Shayla Favor won a contested primary for Franklin County Prosecutor, defeating Chief Deputy County Prosecutor Anthony Pierson. Current County Prosecutor Gary Tyack is retiring. Besides being the Prosecutor for the most populous County of Ohio, the Franklin County Prosecutor also has jurisdiction of the statehouse and most of state government, which in the fallout of the H.B. 6 scandal has placed renewed emphasis on the position. John Rutan was unopposed in the Republican Primary for Franklin County Prosecutor.
Cuyahoga County Prosecutor Michael O’Malley fended off a primary challenger.
Looking ahead to November, former State Representative Connie Pillich is challenging Republican incumbent, Melissa Powers for the position of Hamilton County Prosecuting Attorney in Cincinnati, Ohio. The race figures to be a key test of strength for both local political parties.
November General Election Possible Ballot Issues.
Currently, two ballot issue committees are collecting signatures to appear on the November General Election ballot. The first is a citizen initiated constitutional amendment to revise redistricting in the state. Specifically, if approved by Ohio voters, the constitutional amendment would replace Ohio’s current redistricting process with a citizen-led commission to draw state legislature and congressional districts.
The second potential ballot issue for November is Raise the Wage Ohio, a constitutional amendment to increase Ohio’s minimum wage. This constitutional amendment summary was approved in early 2023, but the supporters of the amendment decided to wait and push their efforts to appear on the November 2024 general election ballot. The constitutional amendment would increase Ohio’s minimum wage to $12.75 on January 1, 2025. On January 1, 2026, the minimum wage would increase again to $15.00 per hour. After January 1, 2027, Ohio’s minimum wage would increase by inflation.
To qualify for the November ballot, each committee must collect a total number of signatures equal to at least ten percent of the total vote cast for the office of governor at the last gubernatorial election, 413,487. The signatures must be obtained from at least 44 of Ohio’s 88 counties. From each of these 44 counties, there must be signatures equal to at least five percent of the total vote cast for the office of governor in that county at the last gubernatorial election. The supporters of each potential ballot issue must file their petitions with signatures to the Ohio Secretary of State’s office by July 3, 2024, 125 days before the general election. Therefore, we will know more on these ballot issues’ efforts in July if they are certified to the ballot after a review of their signatures.
Ohio’s legislative agenda will likely pickup after the March Primary Election to try and finish priorities such as Ohio’s capital budget before the summer recess. Once the Legislators leave for the summer, members are not anticipated to return to Columbus until after the November General Election. With so many bills awaiting legislative action, we expect a busy lame duck session at the end of 2024. You can view any of the bills discussed in this memo at the Ohio General Assembly’s website: https://www.legislature.ohio.gov or contact a member of Bricker Graydon’s Government Relations team for more details.
We look forward to working with you in the coming year and helping make 2024 a success.
U.S. House of Representatives[1]
Ohio House of Representatives
Ohio Senate
[1] Preliminary election results. * Denotes the unofficial primary election winner.
[2] This race was too close to call at the time of this publication.
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