The big guessing game now in the wake of the election is, to what degree should we take Mr. Trump’s election campaign rhetoric literally? This question applies across the board, but in foreign affairs the mystery may be deeper – and more alarming – than in other areas. This is because President-elect Trump has no background, no experience, little knowledge, and until now virtually no detailed intelligence information about complex foreign policies or foreign state behavior. In other words, it is certain that he does not fully grasp the consequences of actions that he has promised on the campaign trail.

Many of candidate Trump’s stump statements or their implications are causing great anxiety, even downright fear. Leave NATO? Encourage nuclear proliferation? Tolerate Russian aggression? Use nuclear weapons? Use torture? Abandon the nuclear agreement with Iran?