This client alert was originally published in Monitor Daily.
The march toward electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft (eVTOL) certification is progressing, though some predict a delay in eVTOLs’ market entry. Leading eVTOL developers have nonetheless continued to innovate, with some developing electric conventional takeoff and landing aircraft (eCTOL) and others exploring the application of artificial intelligence to the eVTOL ecosystem.
Efforts in the aviation industry to bring eVTOLs to market continue to steadily progress. There have been numerous material developments since our second and most recent article on this subject in April 2023.1 During that time, many leading eVTOL developers have continued to progress through the intensive FAA certification process. In this article, we summarize some of these material developments and highlight new and interesting initiatives and innovations that eVTOL developers are working on.
Certification and EVTOLs
One such leading eVTOL developer, Joby Aviation, recently completed stage three (of five) of the FAA-type certification process in late February 2024. Joby was the first — and, at the time of this article’s publication, remains the only — eVTOL developer to achieve this milestone. This third stage entailed submitting certification plans to the FAA, which covered the eVTOL’s structural, mechanical and electrical systems, along with Joby’s approach to various aspects of the aircraft, including cybersecurity, human factors and noise. The FAA accepted these plans, which now allows Joby to begin stage four: conducting thousands of tests and inspections in accordance with its FAA-approved certification plans.
Once Joby completes this fourth phase, the developer will submit the results of its testing to the FAA for analysis and verification. Assuming that there are no setbacks, Joby is positioned to receive its type certificate by the end of 2024, which may pave the way for its planned launch of commercial air taxi operations in 2025. Archer Aviation, too, has recently doubled down on its timeline to launch its four-passenger Midnight eVTOL air taxi services in 2025 and continues to materially progress through the ongoing certification process.
However, as a February 2024 article2 from Aviation Week & Space Technology noted, type certification, while an immense achievement, is but one step toward eVTOLs’ entry-into-service (EIS) date (when eVTOLs are ultimately delivered and utilized in the stream of commerce, leading to revenue generation). The article estimates that, in a best-case scenario, the EIS date for the first eVTOLs could occur in early 2026 (with a more realistic EIS date probably occurring in mid-2027). These projections take into account the timelines that “comparable” aircraft took to progress past the final stages of FAA certification and into the market.3
It should be noted, however, that there is no true comparable aircraft to eVTOL, given the novelty of eVTOLs and the extensive certification process that has already begun. Considering that the entire eVTOL certification process has already taken longer than most in the industry initially expected, a delayed timeline beyond 2025 does not sound unreasonable.
One thing is clear: whether eVTOLs finally take to the skies in 2025, 2026 or even 2027, it becomes increasingly likely that they will arrive—probably before the end of this decade. For now, the eVTOL industry remains patient as the certification process continues.
eCTOLs and AI
eVTOL developers are not passively waiting for certification, however. Many have branched into additional — and equally fascinating — areas in the growing electric aircraft marketplace, such as electric conventional takeoff and landing aircraft (eCTOL) and AI.
Beta Technologies, a privately held Vermont-based company, made waves in the past year when it announced that it was developing an eCTOL, the CX300, alongside its own eVTOL prototype. The CX300 is an electric fixed-wing aircraft that does not have the tilted rotors that allow for vertical takeoff and landing capabilities. It strives to blend the best of both worlds: infusing the environmental benefits and growing allure of a futuristic, electric aircraft with tried-and-true takeoff and landing processes. In other words, while the CX300 (and eCTOLs generally) lack eVTOLs’ vertical takeoff and landing flexibility, its conventional flight techniques position it to fold nicely into an already-established certification framework. This perhaps allows the eCTOL the edge of entering the market (both initially and on a widespread basis) faster than its eVTOL counterparts.
Beta currently predicts that the CX300 (which already has military certification) will receive full FAA approval in 2025, with its eVTOL receiving the same in 2026. Some in the industry believe this dual eCTOL and eVTOL approach is a smart financial strategy, as the eCTOL’s anticipatedly straightforward adoption in the market could contrast the lengthy certification, infrastructure development and consumer adoption process that eVTOLs will continue to face for years to come.
Beta has also begun building out its own charging infrastructure for both its eCTOLs and eVTOLs. Beta recently installed the first-ever electric aircraft charging station at a U.S. Department of Defense site. Further, Beta has amassed a multimodal electric charging network across the nation, with 19 locations activated (many at airports) and over 50 more in development. This national push in infrastructure includes Beta’s aircraft manufacturing facility, which opened in Vermont earlier this year. It is slated to produce 300 aircraft annually.
If Aircrafts Had Complete AI Knowledge
Another U.S. company making headlines recently with respect to eVTOLs is AIBOT, a California-based startup. AIBOT, similar to other companies such as Tesla, has been running algorithms in its vehicles in order to accumulate knowledge and advance its AI software. The ultimate vision, according to AIBOT, is for a consumer to have the ability to hail an autonomous eVTOL to their backyard and then travel to any destination swiftly and safely. The company readily acknowledges that this vision is, for now, beyond reach, as the FAA remains focused on developing rules for manned eVTOLs, with any concrete rules pertaining to autonomous eVTOL flights necessarily to follow at a later time.
Nevertheless, AIBOT’s ultimate vision is a fascinating one, as it envisions a world in which an aircraft has AI knowledge and decision-making skills surpassing any pilot on the planet and the ability to gather and interpret multiple streams of data simultaneously (such as viewing multiple camera angles at the same time), while seamlessly anticipating obstacles and communicating with other aircraft in its proximity. This would undoubtedly deliver unparalleled, next-generation flight efficiency and security.
How Aircrafts Use AI Today
In the meantime, eVTOL developers (and all others in the aircraft industry more generally) are already utilizing AI to further strengthen security and efficiency in other, more readily achievable capacities. AI’s reach will not simply stop at the confines of the eVTOL; it will also bolster countless other facets of the aviation industry. Avidyne, for example, is using AI to improve existing flight operations.
Using its PilotsEye Vision System, AI scans the airspace for other airborne craft, weather developments, and other hazards like birds and organizes all of this data into an easy-to-use display for pilots. Systems Technology, Inc. also recently partnered with AI Redefined to use AI to develop the world’s first eVTOL pilot training simulation. AI’s adaptive learning and simulation technology will help train pilots in an immersive yet safely controlled environment.
Other ongoing developments in AI are also predicted to improve aircraft maintenance (by identifying and predicting needed and upcoming maintenance), air traffic management (through optimizing traffic routes and reducing congestion), and aircraft design (by processing and inventing aircraft designs faster and perhaps more inventive than human engineers currently can).
Fast, Sleek and Safe Future
In sum, the reality of eVTOLs is inching ever closer. The FAA and eVTOL developers are working tirelessly to progress various eVTOLs through the multiple steps of certification and beyond. And while this future may still be a few years away, the electric aviation industry continues to fascinate with developments such as the eCTOL and the increasing use of AI in virtually every aspect of the industry at large, with all signs pointing toward a faster, sleeker and safer future in aviation.
1Domow Bacsardi, Shari B., Dillon A. Redding, and Alexander R. Lowitt, “Tipping the Scales: eVTOLs: Recent FAA Certification Activity and an International Perspective for an Emerging Unicorn Technology,” Monitordaily, March/April 2023
2Cecutta, Sergio, “Opinion: Getting Real About eVTOL Startups Timelines,” Aviation Week Network, February 29, 2024
3In the best-case scenario, the article considered the Bell 505. For the realistic scenario, the article considered the Robinson R66. A corresponding estimate found a baseline duration of 21 months.
[View source.]
