With the world powers set to resume meetings in Vienna this week, the question on every U.S. business person’s lips is: will this be the end of sanction on Iran?   Despite reports that neither side can afford to walk away empty-handed, prospects are slim that any change in the sanctions programs would be imminent.

All reports indicate that Iran and the West are closer than ever to reaching a deal, and both sides acknowledge that failure would push relations dangerously close to open conflict.  But diplomats involved in the negotiations have indicated that key stumbling blocks remain, such as the number of centrifuges Iran would be permitted to keep and the speed and sequence of sanctions relief.  Specifically, Tehran wants sanctions on its oil exports and financial services sector to be lifted as soon as a possible, but the U.S. intends to keep those sanctions in place until Iran’s cooperation can be quantified and confirmed.  Iran also wants the term of the deal to be limited to three years, with the West pushing for 20 years.

Aside from the unresolved deal terms, a number of other factors will contribute to the difficulty of reaching a deal by the November 24 deadline. On the one hand, the P5+1 powers are not united in their approach to concessions.  France in particular has taken a hard line on Iran’s nuclear de-escalation, prompting pleas by Secretary of State Kerry that France not draw a line in the sand at the eleventh hour.  In addition, the soon-to-be Republican controlled Congress has already threatened to issue new sanctions on Iran should the sides fail to reach an agreement.  On the other hand, questions remain as to whether Iran’s negotiating team has the authority to make the types of concessions necessary to even reach a deal.  Many hardliners in Tehran are unwilling to be seen as capitulating to the West, and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei may prefer to have his negotiators return to Tehran with the terms of a potential deal before agreeing to be bound by it.

Given these political uncertainties and the lack of consensus on major deal points, the most probable outcome of this week’s talks are either another extension (probably until March 2015) or a new interim deal that provides a frameowrk for negotiating key issues at a future date.  In either case, the U.S. is unlikely to roll back its most stringent sanctions on Iran any time soon.  Even if a breakthrough were to come before the deadline, U.S. businesses should not expect an opening of the Iranian market or any substantive change in the status quo before a more substantive deal is reached and Iran’s cooperation can be assured.