This article originally ran on Forbes.com on February 13, 2025. All rights reserved.
During a week when starved Israeli hostages, resembling Holocaust survivors, were finally returned by Hamas in a macabre ceremony, few people focused on a story involving natural gas. However, in the long term, this could have enormous implications for the Middle East, offering many benefits for both Israel and moderate Islamic countries that have long favored improving relations with the Jewish State. This story involves a company from a Turkic country in the Caucasus, Azerbaijan, purchasing a stake in Tamar, the Israeli offshore natural gas field. (Source).
Azerbaijan is a former republic of the Soviet Union. Since regaining its independence in 1991, this majority Shia, but secular country, has long made developing a close relationship with Israel a major foreign policy priority. (Source). In fact, Israel has been a significant weapons supplier to Azerbaijan, quietly providing drones and other armaments that helped Baku in the 2020 war against Yerevan over the Azerbaijani region of Karabakh, which was controlled by the pro-Russian Armenian separatists. (Source).
The deal in question involves the Azeri State Oil Company, also known as SOCAR. With the blessing of Chevron, which owns a major stake in the Tamar natural gas reservoir located 56 miles offshore from the northern Israeli city of Haifa in the Mediterranean Sea, SOCAR has purchased ten percent of Tamar. This deal is viewed as potentially just the first of many involving Israel and Azerbaijan across various fields.
The price for the 10% stake is undisclosed. The Tamar field was discovered in 2009 and began producing natural gas in 2013. (Source). In fact, Israel has been supplying neighboring Jordan with gas since 2017. Recent valuations have indicated that the value of the field has doubled in only the last five years. (Source). Israel is also supplying billions of cubic meters of gas to the former arch-enemy Egypt since 2020. (Source).
From a strategic point of view, the alliance with Azerbaijan makes lots of sense for Israel. Azerbaijan borders Iran, which made the destruction of Israel its flagship policy. Teheran has long been the leading supplier of weapons to countries and organizations that call for Israel’s destruction. Azerbaijan, which is also a supplier of oil and jet fuel, is an important energy supplier for Israel, which also imports oil from Kazakhstan, another Turkic, secular, but culturally Muslim country in Eurasia. Due to the unwavering alliance with Baku, despite the Gaza war, Israel continues to integrate itself economically into the Islamic world.
Among all of Israel’s involvements with majority Muslim countries, the Azerbaijan natural gas agreement is most interesting. This country continues to maintain positive relations with both Israel and Turkey, which at one time were close allies but have become bitter enemies since the rise of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his decision to host Hamas and provide it safe haven and economic support, while simultaneously threatening to invade Israel, accusing Israel of plotting to invade Turkey, and shipping explosives and arms to terror groups in the Gaza and Judea and Samaria (the West Bank). Having a partner that might help ameliorate the tense situation raises interesting international financial and political possibilities.
As the Algemeiner Journal notes, “according to Ze’ev Khanin, a professor of Eurasian geopolitics at Bar-Ilan University and a senior research fellow at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, Azerbaijan is a crucial part of strategic alliances that he refers to as “unclosed triangles,” with Baku (Azerbaijan’s capital) serving as the missing link. One notable example is the unclosed triangle of Azerbaijan, Turkey, and Israel. Despite strained ties between Turkey and Israel, Azerbaijan continues to use the Turkey-controlled Bosporus Strait and the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline as transit points for energy exports to Israel. “The Turks didn’t stop the stream of Azerbaijani energy through Turkey to Israel,” Khanin said, adding that Ankara was eager to position itself as a transit hub for energy exports to Europe.” (Source).
All of this points to a Middle East that remains in flux. The Gaza War was a cataclysmic event that shook much of the region and people who have interests in the region to the core. Yet most of the political and economic relations have continued, if not been strengthened, since October 2023. For those now trying to pick up the pieces, those relationships could actually provide a solid base on which to try to remake the region so that it emerges more prosperous and resilient when the war runs its course and reconstruction begins.
