Will this have an impact on the U.S. elections?

The impact of these elections will reverberate beyond the EU, and some in the U.S. may be wondering what this may say about the American elections in November. The EU results are unlikely to presage a policy shift in Brussels, so it is “business as usual” in a capital obsessed with domestic politics. In any event, whilst Von der Leyen and Biden have a good relationship, the strength of the EU / U.S. ties is built on bilateral relationships with individual leaders on a Member State level.

The upcoming snap election in France and rumours of a German election are likely to impact transatlantic relations more profoundly and may provide more insight into issues that might animate American voters in November.

However, even if Macron’s party, Renaissance, loses and there is a Prime Minister from another party, Macron will still be in control of international affairs as President. As such, in France, eyes should be set on the 2027 presidential elections.

Here are three things that those in the U.S. should consider following the results:

1. A rightward shift in Europe could potentially bolster Trump's campaign, as it could be seen as a validation of his political approaches.  The question is to what degree the results are a demonstration of strength on the right or dissatisfaction with the status quo.  Looking at the EU results in context with the recent elections in India, Mexico, and South Africa, the deciding factor was less ideology than performance.  Indian voters punished the conservative Modi, and in South Africa the left-of-centre ANC lost its majority for the first time in 30 years.  Mexican voters rewarded outgoing leftist Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador by electing his protégé, Claudia Sheinbaum, to succeed him.  In Britain, the Conservatives are widely tipped to lose badly to Labour, while across the Channel, rightists look set to dominate France’s next parliament.

2. The EU elections have also shown that there is a lot of public discourse around migration, increased cost of living, and the costs of fighting climate change. In the U.S., all of these are salient issues, especially for Republicans, but again the circumstances differ.  The U.S. economy is remarkably robust, and although the inflation spike of the pandemic years is still pinching pocketbooks, Americans are starting to feel more optimistic about the country’s economy.  Whether that trend continues over the next 4 ½ months will determine who sits in the White House next January.

3. From a policy perspective, the road map that is being developed seems to want to create Fortress Europe. That is putting a priority on EU companies and putting higher barriers to entry for third-country firms. A lot of this hurts U.S. firms in particular. The reach is also expanding to not just offering services to the EU but capturing any EU citizen. We will see more of that in the next mandate.