My thoughts on where we are today:
The Republicans
-
Trump: The Trump machine continues to lead in national polls, but underperforming in Iowa has given hope to his many detractors. Another underwhelming performance in New Hampshire will set off alarm bells; “the granite state” is now a must-win proposition for the Trump campaign.
-
Cruz: Religious Conservatives in Iowa loved him, but such appeal is more limited in libertarian-oriented New Hampshire. Still, the Texas Senator is neck and neck with Trump in competition for front-runner status.
-
Rubio: A strong third place finish in Iowa means that the freshman Senator from Florida will continue to hang around the first tier. A consistent string of strong debate performances has helped as well. He is the establishment candidate many Democrats fear the most; the generational contrast with Mrs. Clinton would be striking.
-
Kasich: A near total focus on New Hampshire is paying off with increasingly strong poll numbers in what observers believed would be a Kasich-friendly state. But where does he go from here? South Carolina and Florida will be more difficult for this moderate Governor. (In any case, he will be a strong VP candidate.)
-
Christie: Poll standing in New Hampshire has taken a hit in view of unfortunate blizzard clean-up comments and forthcoming “bridgegate” trial. The New Jersey Governor also faces a more conservative electorate in South Carolina and Florida. Another strong VP candidate.
-
Carson: The world famous surgeon has been losing steam (and supporters) to Cruz and Trump for weeks. A fourth place Iowa showing did not help his sputtering campaign.
The Democrats
-
Clinton & Sanders: The “Bernie surge” in Iowa (and New Hampshire) is real. Nevertheless, it is difficult to imagine a sustained Sanders effort should Clinton manage to stay out of the Department of Justice’s crosshairs.
Speaking of those crosshairs, Capitol Hill observers are split concerning the possibility of a Clinton indictment. In Vegas terms, you should probably take the under. But there is a marked increase in speculation in light of the length and depth of the FBI investigation.
-
Biden: Should the unthinkable occur, all eyes will turn to the Vice President. His vast experience and strong standing within the party place him in position to wage a more than credible race despite a very late start. Note that many within the GOP fear a Biden entry in view of his high favorability / image numbers – far better than Mrs. Clinton’s.
