Transportation and technology continue to maintain a strong “buzz.” As more and more states join the driverless vehicle regulatory fray, including Michigan, New York and Tennessee, all eyes are on the National Highway Safety Administration as it prepares to release safety and operational guidelines for autonomous vehicles in July. While the billion-dollar question remains exactly when we can expect widespread deployment of this transformative technology, all signs continue to point in the direction of increased automation on our roads.
NHTSA announced that that the guidelines will cover four areas:
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deployment and operational guidance;
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model state policies to encourage uniform regulations;
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clarifying process for seeking interpretative guidance; and
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identifying new “tools of authorities” needed to accelerate deployment.
The guidelines will be influenced by the more than 60 public comments that NHTSA received, including comments from the two public hearings held in Washington, D.C. and Stanford, Calif.
Major issues raised in the comments include operational safety, cybersecurity and privacy concerns. A guideline on whether driverless cars, at least in the short term, should be required to have steering wheels and pedals would be welcomed, especially with GM and Google taking different approaches on the subject. GM believes steering wheels and pedals should remain in driverless cars for now while the safety of autonomous cars is proven. Google does not believe such a “phase-in” period is necessary. States also have different views on steering wheel and pedal requirements, which impacts whether a driver should be required during testing or not. With it also being reported that NHTSA will not preempt states from developing their own regulations, we expect to continue to see states race to position themselves as a welcoming environment for the testing and development of driverless cars.
Despite significant operational questions, a recent forecast from IHS Automotive estimates that autonomous vehicle sales will reach 21 million in 2035 and nearly 76 million sold through 2035. This significant estimate, along with a glimpse into how insurance for driverless vehicles may take shape, confirms that we should expect to see this impactful technology on our roads more and more in the near term. States, cities and local agencies will need to be prepared to take charge of the development of their own regulations, at least for now, that incorporate the forthcoming NHTSA guidance. Over time, we will see whether federal lawmakers and regulators decide that preemption is needed to avoid a patchwork of laws that may prevent autonomous cars from traveling across the country.
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