According to a multi-country comparative graph created by The Johns Hopkins University, the United States seemingly has more months to go before we can return to normal activity — like conducting elections.
Fifteen states have already postponed their congressional or presidential primaries. But because the November election is set by federal law, states are preparing alternative strategies to conduct their general election. Options include expanded early voting days, expanded absentee voting, and even trying to adopt a vote-by-mail alternative.
The questions are: how will voters and candidates react to these changes, and when do changes — even those well-motivated in response to a pandemic — go too far and violate voting rights?
In Florida, voter turnout in 2020 was greater than it was in 2016 because the state made an early commitment to early voting systems and vote-by-mail. Illinois, on the other hand, saw a 25% decrease in turnout due to election-day mismanagement and poor use of early voting or vote by mail. Wisconsin had the best (or worst) experience depending on your perspective with various competing moves by the Governor, state legislature, citizens groups, and the federal courts. Voter turnout went down 10%, but over 1 million absentee votes were cast, roughly 80% of that election’s vote total.
And these late primary states do matter, politically. Bernie Sanders, for example, is still on the ballot in these re-scheduled primary states trying to add to his delegate total before the Democratic Convention. The DNC has, in fact, postponed its convention by a month to August 17, 2020, to give states more time to hold primaries after the original June 9 cutoff date.
For congressional races, the Coronavirus has certainly dampened fundraising efforts and voter-enthusiasm: two things that bode well for the Democrats in the House: The Cook Political Report recently moved four elections from “toss-up” to “lean Democrat.” Also, incumbents tend to have the best voter lists and digital strategies, giving them an advantage over less-equipped challengers in low-turnout elections.
Politics aside, there are huge legal considerations facing election administrators as they decide how to reduce crowding on election day. Their options include:
- allow “no excuse” absentee voting
- expand the number of “early voting” polling locations and dates and hours
- reduce the requirements (such as notarization) on voting absentee
- actually mail a ballot, or at least a ballot request form, to every registered voter
This last option is certainly the most dramatic: printing over 100 million unmarked ballots and putting them through the US mail is going to create huge regulatory changes (when is a vote timely cast and timely delivered?), equal access allegations (should the ballot’s return envelope be postage-paid?); and how do you prevent vote harvesting (can party workers go door-to-door or through nursing homes collecting ballots?).
Vote by mail will certainly decrease allegations over voter suppression so long as the polling list is up to date but will give more voice to the advocates who see better chances for fraudulent voting. Although there is a bill in the US Senate (S. 3529) to standardize state voting practices, most believe this will be left to each individual state to work out for itself. Legal advice should be sought by assisted living facilities, universities, or other large residences to ensure that ballots that arrive in bulk are individually distributed and returned according to any new state laws.
One thing is for certain: if even half of the US States adopt some form of vote-by-mail, expect “election night” to turn into “election week” as late returns may make this a truly long and contested election.
For additional information on vote-by-mail elections visit the website of the National Conference of State Legislatures, which more thoroughly examines the pros and cons of voting by mail, including a link to Oregon’s vote-by-mail manual. The New York Times has the best on-going account of states pushing back their primaries and how the courts, citizens groups, and the electorate have reacted to that. And the AARP has a 50 state task force monitoring changes in election laws to ensure their membership can take advantage of easier access to voting.
Prediction? Even though there is a push for states to “open up” I believe many states are going to steer a middle course: not go so far as vote-by-mail, but instead will ease-up on absentee ballot restrictions. Like many things this year, you may add voting to the list of things you did from home in 2020.
