[co-author: Kathryn Hampton, Senior PSL]

With an unusually warm 25th December forecast this year, the prospect of a white Christmas looks slim, but with the government's Housing White Paper due in early 2017 (The Year of the Rooster!), we consider what we might expect to find when we finally unwrap it in the new year.

The Housing White Paper is going to set out the government's strategy for building new homes. With last week's controversial Ministerial Written Statement on neighbourhood planning branded by some as a government U-turn on housing delivery, anticipation is building as to the contents of the Paper.

Our prediction is that it will include some of the following:

• Anti "land-banking" initiatives - Communities secretary Sajid Javid has been vocal about the need to clamp down on land-banking. Whilst some predict the introduction of "use it or lose it" planning permissions, we think that S.106 delivery timescales are more likely. This could include a financial penalty if an agreed stage of progress has not been met by the agreed deadline.
   
• Tenure mix - The contents of the Autumn Statement suggested a policy shift from home ownership to a multi-tenure approach to housing supply. The £1.4bn funding for affordable rent and the announcement that existing funding will be opened up to a wider range of products illustrates the government's move in direction. Built to Rent (BTR) got a clear "thumbs up" from the Mayor of London in his recent draft guidance and we expect the Housing White Paper to follow suit. 
   
• Modular construction - It is estimated that UK construction costs have increased by as much as 10% this year and are now the second highest in the world. We expect support for modular or off-site construction to be included in the government's housing strategy.
   
• Skills - The government wants to ensure that local planning authorities (LPAs) have the necessary skills to plan and grant consents for housing and that the current skills shortage in the construction industry is reversed. We expect new policies on skills auditing and improving.
   
• Local Plans - The Housing Minister said that he will respond to the Local Plans Expert Group's (LPEG) recommendations in the White Paper. LPEG's suggestions included a consistent methodology for calculating five-year land supply and a statutory duty to produce and maintain an up to date local plan.
   
• LPA incentives - We expect the government to use incentives to encourage LPAs to prepare their local plans quickly and to use the duty-to-cooperate more effectively in respect of housing provision. The duty to cooperate places a legal duty on LPAs and public bodies to engage constructively on local plan preparation in the context of strategic cross boundary matters. The LPEG recommended changes to national planning guidance to specify that a LPA will not be in breach of the duty where it consulted with statutory authorities but did not received a timely response.
   
• Neighbourhood planning - The government wants to minimise the number of planning permissions granted in conflict with neighbourhood plan policies. Last week, the Housing Minister said that giving people more control over development in their area is increasing housing supply. He said that neighbourhood plans that plan for housing (HNPs) have, on average, planned for around 10% more homes than the number set by the LPA. To this end, he purported to effectively amend national planning policy to make it harder for HNPs to be deemed out of date and we expect the same to be included in the Housing White Paper. The Ministerial Written Statement has been very controversial and there are fears that this will reduce the number of housing consents granted, limiting, rather than boosting supply.
   
• Planning fees - New policies on the setting of planning fees are expected. The Housing Minister has acknowledged that LPAs need more resources and has proposed increasing planning fees by a proportionate amount "linked to inflation and performance".
   
• Devolution - We wonder whether the government will use this opportunity to devolve greater housing powers to key cities. Earlier this year the LPEG urged the government to make "a commitment to plan positively to meet objectively assessed housing need" a condition of devolution deals.  With London worst hit by affordability and undersupply issues, there is pressure for greater powers to be devolved to the Mayor of London. This could include retention of stamp duty and increased responsibility for design codes and standards.

It will be interesting to see which of these make it into the Housing White Paper and whether there are any big surprises in store. With such contentious topics, it is perhaps unsurprising that the government has taken its time over it.

We do not know exactly when in 2017 the Paper will be published, but in the great words of Muhammad Ali, "A rooster crows only when it sees the light".