Conventional wisdom holds that 2018 will be a wave election year for Democrats. When one party controls both chambers of Congress and the White House, it is typical that the opposition party makes gains in the midterm elections. Beginning with 1994, at least one chamber of Congress has flipped in each midterm election, save 1998. So far, 2018 seems to fit the trend. Democrats have performed well in several recent special elections, even in deep red districts, and the generic congressional ballot currently has Democrats up. Still, Republicans have several structural advantages that Democrats lack. House districts across the country are drawn in a way that benefits Republicans, giving them a disproportionate share of “safe” seats, and Democrats are tasked with defending 26 seats in the Senate compared to the Republican 9. That being said, the most likely scenario two months from Election Day is that Democrats will take the House. The Senate remains a coin flip.

As we approach the 2018 elections, we find ourselves asking many questions...