Friday, December 2, 2022: Economy Added 263k Jobs in November; Unemployment Rate Remained at 3.7%
Total nonfarm payroll jobs increased by 263,000 in November, up slightly from the 261,000 increase in October, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported in its latest monthly jobs report. (We will not know until BLS reports its JOLTS report on January 4, 2023, reporting how many jobs were lost in the U.S. economy in October.) Notable job gains in October occurred in leisure and hospitality, health care, and government, the Bureau said. Employment declined in retail trade, transportation, and warehousing.
The short-term unemployment rate (those unemployed for fewer than 5 weeks) remained at 3.7 percent for the second month in a row. Among the unemployed, the number of permanent job losers rose by 127,000 to 1.4 million up from 1.2 million in October. The number of persons on temporary layoff changed little at 803,000 compared to October’s 847,000.
The labor force participation rate, now at 62.1 percent, decreased a smidge from 62.2 percent in October. This means that fewer Americans available to work were working in October. The employment-population ratio was 59.9 percent – almost unchanged from October’s 60.0 percent. BLS noted that these measures are 1.3 percentage points below their values in February 2020, prior to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. (This is the “Great Resignation” number: the population has grown, but the job market has not grown as fast as the population…hence fewer available workers “participating” in the labor force).
Long-term Unemployment Numbers Changed Little
The numbers for total unemployment are reported in a chart here. Unemployment (seasonally adjusted) for 5 to 14 weeks was at 28.4 percent in October, down from 29.9 percent. The rate for unemployment of 15 to 26 weeks in October was 13.4 percent, a small decrease from 13.5 percent. The unemployment rate for 27 weeks and over was 20.6 percent, up from 19.5 percent in October. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was 1.2 million in November, unchanged from October. The long-term unemployed accounted for 20.6 percent of all unemployed persons.
Notable Changes Illustrated in Charts
In her Twitter thread on the November Report, U.S. Department of Labor (USDOL) Chief Economist Joelle Gamble pointed out that “[t]here are now over 1 [million] more jobs in the U.S. than in Feb 2020 and private payrolls are 1.5 m higher than in Feb 2020.” She shared the following chart to illustrate this point [although this ignores that during this 33-month period a nominally growing labor market keeping up with the expansion of the population and adding only 140,000 new jobs each month would have added over 4.6 million new jobs (33 months x 140,000):
JOBS REPORT: In November, the economy added 263,000 jobs (272K 3-mo. moving average). There are now over 1 mn more jobs in the U.S. than in Feb 2020 and private payrolls are 1.5 mn higher than in Feb 2020. The unemployment rate was 3.7%, the same as in October. (1/6) pic.twitter.com/DDGvVyIjh0
— Joelle Gamble (@joelle_gamble) December 2, 2022
Highlighting some sector-specific changes, Economist Gamble shared the following chart. She noted that “the social assistance sector fully recovered [to the level of employment at the start of the pre-COVID-19 pandemic but not to what it would have been at the end of the pandemic, but for that pandemic] largely due to increasing payrolls in individual and family services.”
![Monthly Change in Retail Trade Payrolls](https://jdsupra-html-images.s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/ab3b9a05-a2bd-434f-908c-d4ab69cac1da-monthly-change-retail-trade-payrolls.png)
The leisure and hospitality sectors had larger gains in recent months (+88K in November), though they still remain below their pre-pandemic level, she noted. Food services and drinking places (+62K) drove much of November’s increase.
![Employment in Food Services & Drinking Places](https://jdsupra-html-images.s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/ab3b9a05-a2bd-434f-908c-d4ab69cac1da-employment-food-services-drinking-places.png)
Nursing and residential care facilities grew (+10K) in November, continuing the climb from a drop in employment that continued even after the pandemic recovery began, Economist Gamble pointed out. However, employment in those sectors was still well below the pre-pandemic level.
![Employment in Nursing & Residential Care Facilities](https://jdsupra-html-images.s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/ab3b9a05-a2bd-434f-908c-d4ab69cac1da-employment-nursing-homes-residential-care-facilities.png)
Unemployment Rate Changes Continued to Vary Among the Major Worker Groups with Significant Rate Drop for Individuals with Disabilities
Economist Gamble concluded her thread by noting that unemployment rates by race and gender “remain near historic lows,” but disparities between groups still persist. She shared the following chart to show the numbers by race/gender for groups with large sample sizes:
![Unemployment Rate by Race & Gender](https://jdsupra-html-images.s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/ab3b9a05-a2bd-434f-908c-d4ab69cac1da-unemployment-rate-race-gender.png)
USDOL tweeted the following chart of the November rates among the major worker groups:
![November 2022: 3.7% unemployment rate. 7.7% American Indian & Alaska native. 2.7% Asian. 5.7% Black. 3.9% Hispanic. 4.5% Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander. 4.9% More Than One Race. 3.2% White. Source: BLS | Dol.gov](https://jdsupra-html-images.s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/ab3b9a05-a2bd-434f-908c-d4ab69cac1da-unemployment-rate-usdol.jpeg)
Our chart below further details the rate changes among the major worker groups:
As the above chart shows, the most dramatic change was the unemployment rate for Individuals with Disabilities at 5.8 percent in November, a significant drop from the 7.4 percent rate in October.
BLS has additional, interactive graphs available here.
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