Follow the money!
Publicly-reported independent expenditure funding through September 17 was released this week for #MNLeg races. Read on to find out who’s spending big money in Minnesota to influence targeted House districts, and what this means for the balance of power in the next biennium.
- Independent expenditures were made in 41 House districts[1]
- A total of $2,832,000 has been spent by political parties’ House campaign arms and independent groups, of which 86% ($2,426,000) was spent in 12 top battleground races
- In battleground districts, 1.5x as much was spent to benefit DFL candidates ($1,465,000) as compared to GOP candidates ($961,000). All but three battleground districts have a DFL spending advantage.
- Biggest spenders:
- Overall, DFL House Caucus ($838,000) and DFL-aligned group, Alliance for a Better Minnesota ($864,000)
- On the GOP side, the House Republican Campaign Committee ($139,000) and GOP-aligned groups, Renew Minnesota ($579,000) and Pro Jobs Majority ($378,000)
Funding comes from powerful state and national interests
Legislative campaign arms routinely raise and spend millions each cycle for independent expenditures as well as direct candidate support. Allied groups, which may share ideological goals, may raise from a separate pool of donors. In Minnesota, independent expenditure committees may raise money from corporations, while campaigns and PACs cannot. A few of note:
- Alliance for a Better Minnesota: funded by prominent Democratic-aligned individual donors, labor unions, national SuperPACs
- Renew Minnesota: funded by Republican-aligned individual donors, Minnesota Private Business Council, national Republican campaign committees
- Pro Jobs Majority: funded by Minnesota Chamber of Commerce
Spending will only increase in the next month
If you live in one of these districts, prepare for an onslaught of online ads and glossy mailers — spending in competitive races will dramatically ratchet up in the weeks and days to come, as campaign professionals aim to target voters at the precise moment when they are making up their minds. Top-spending groups have considerable war chests and continue to raise. Transfers between top groups further obscure the path of money in these races.
Money isn’t everything
If predictions become reality, many of these races will come down to a small contingent of swing voters who ultimately select and vote for a candidate (and whether to vote at all) based on national trends. Having Minnesota’s very own Tim Walz on the Democratic ticket is sure to fire up enthusiasm from the local DFL base, while longtime Donald Trump loyalists are eager to see the former President return to the White House.
Battleground House Districts
[1] *Independent expenditures made to influence primary elections or other actions were removed from this analysis, to the best extent possible.
