The prospects for a UK-U.S. free trade agreement ("FTA") might have been muddied somewhat by the outcome of the U.S. 2018 mid-term elections. The UK has consistently put forward a potential UK-U.S. FTA as one of the main benefits of Brexit. Similarly, President Trump has recently reiterated its support for a UK-U.S. FTA (whereas President Obama had warned that Brexit would put the UK at the "back of the queue for trade talks") and the USTR notified the U.S. Congress on 16 October 2018 of its intent to launch trade negotiations, inter alia, with the UK.
The shift to a Democrat-controlled House of Representatives is likely to complicate the Trump Administration’s trade agenda, since free trade agreements require Congressional approval under the Trade Promotion Authority/fast-track procedures. During the last period of Democratic control, then Speaker Pelosi (D-CA) blocked consideration of President George W. Bush’s Colombia, Korea, and Panama FTAs in 2008 by amending the TPA procedures. While the Trump Administration is hoping to get the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) approved early next year, the change to Democratic control is likely to complicate such efforts and may require efforts to assuage Democratic concerns on Mexican labour rights enforcement, environmental protections, data exclusivity protections for biologic medicines, lack of consultation, and other issues. A U.S.-Japan FTA faces increased obstacles because of likely Democratic opposition to Japanese car imports. A U.S.-UK agreement likely faces less opposition since it is hard to see how traditional Democratic concerns about labour rights and environmental protections would be applicable. However, the challenges may lie on the UK side of the Atlantic and whether it can extricate itself from Brexit, and more important can do so in a manner that does not compromise its ability to negotiate with the U.S.
[View source.]
