Votes in the 2022 Midterm Elections are still being tallied. It will likely take several more days, if not weeks, to be able to confirm who will hold the majority in the House and Senate. Please note that House, Senate, and Gubernatorial trackers will continue to be updated as races are called.
Following Tuesday’s results, the House and Senate will likely end up being controlled by razor-thin margins, as President Joe Biden and Democrats bucked the trend of massive losses for the President’s party in their first Midterm Election. This will boost the status of Blue Dog Democrats and Moderate Republicans in negotiations between the two parties. The Executive Branch will continue to have an outsized role as the Biden Administration continues to enact regulatory change through its implementation of the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, CHIPS Act, and Inflation Reduction Act. Ultimately, control of the Senate will be likely decided by Nevada and/or Georgia, while the House will likely be flipped to Republican control by a small margin.
Victories in Florida helped solidify the state’s status as a Republican stronghold as Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) easily won reelection against former Gov. Charlie Crist (D), and Sen. Marco Rubio (R) beat back a challenge from Rep. Val Demings (D). Gov. DeSantis’ victory has further fueled rumors that he will seek the Republican nomination for President in 2024.
Exit polling has indicated that voters cited concerns surrounding inflation, abortion, and crime as influencing their vote the most. The Foley team has been predicting that control of the House and Senate would be decided by a small margin and has been closely tracking all House, Senate, and Gubernatorial races this cycle. With razor-thin majorities, the Foley team is ready to accurately predict the implications of the election results for the 118th Congress. See below for a complete recap of what we have compiled thus far, the makeup of the 118th Congress, and a preview of the lame-duck session.
House Election Results
After picking up multiple seats in the 2020 Election, House Republicans felt confident about their chances to flip control of the chamber, their first time doing so since Democrats flipped it in the 2018 Midterm Elections. House Democrats fared significantly better than anticipated, with multiple vulnerable incumbents staving off challengers. Key votes are still being counted in Arizona, California, New York, and Nevada that may determine control of the House.
Senate Election Results
As the race tightened in the final days of the election, Republicans sought to flip control of the chamber through 2020 Election swing states, including Pennsylvania, Nevada, Georgia, and Arizona. Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D) beat Dr. Mehmet Oz (R) to pick up the open seat vacated by Sen. Pat Toomey (R). Incumbents held off challengers in the swing states of Wisconsin and New Hampshire. Results are still being tallied in Arizona and Nevada. A run-off election in Georgia will take place on December 6th between incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) and football star Herschel Walker (R).
Gubernatorial Results
Gubernatorial elections this cycle saw the flip of multiple Republican and Democrat-held seats. In Massachusetts, Gov. Charlie Baker (R) opted not to run for re-election, and in Maryland, Gov. Larry Hogan (R) was term-limited following two consecutive four-year terms. Maura Healey (D) will become the new Gov. in Massachusetts, while Wes Moore (D) won in Maryland. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) easily won reelection over challenger and former Gov. Charlie Crist (D).
So, What’s Next in Washington? The Lame-Duck Period is Here
While the results continue to be tallied, the 118th Congress is scheduled to convene on January 3rd, 2023. Between now and then, Congress will convene a lame-duck session to finalize outstanding must-pass bills and other priorities in the 117th Congress. Issues that Congress is anticipated to address include government funding, the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), permitting legislation, and tax extenders among other priorities.
Debt Limit
In what is likely to become a fierce political battle, Democrats are looking for ways to raise the debt limit. President Joe Biden and Congressional Democrats are seeking ways to ward off economic issues by striking a deal with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) and the Republicans during the lame-duck session. Meanwhile, House Republicans are aiming to wait until 2023 so that they can leverage the debt limit with entitlement cuts. Biden has outwardly dismissed calls from House Democrats led by Rep. Brandon Boyle (D-PA) to abolish the debt limit, calling it fiscally irresponsible. Democrats have also floated using reconciliation to raise the debt limit; however, due to the time-consuming nature of reconciliation and the limited number of days remaining in the 117th Congress, this would potentially derail other Democrat priorities. The White House has publicly stated that any bill used to increase the debt limit should be clean of entitlement reforms; however, this, along with concerns regarding discretionary spending cuts under the Statutory PAYGO, could complicate negotiations.
Complicated negotiations between Biden and Republicans could lead to a repeat of the 2011 debt-ceiling crisis, in which debt-limit negotiations between Congressional Republicans and President Obama sparked volatile financial markets and a downgrade of the U.S. credit rating. The U.S. Treasury Department has indicated that the current limit on the borrowing ceiling will start to kick in by the third quarter of 2023. Democrats are hoping that McConnell, who led Senate Republicans during the 2011 crisis, will lean on his memories and negotiate, despite calls from the more conservative wing of the Republican Party not to broker a deal with Democrats during the lame-duck.
Government Funding and NDAA
Congress will once again need to either pass a budget omnibus, or, at the very least, pass an updated continuing resolution (CR) to fund the government beyond December 16th, when the current CR is set to expire. This funding package could be a potential legislative vehicle for several additional policy riders (discussed below). House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) has also confirmed intentions to add Ukraine aid to the year-end package.
Additionally, Congress will need to pass the FY2023 NDAA, which could be a vehicle for additional Democratic priorities. Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) has expressed interest in attaching his permitting legislation to the NDAA. Manchin previously attempted to attach the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2022 to the latest CR in September but withdrew it after not receiving enough support.
Tax Extenders
Members of both parties have expressed interest in taking up a year-end tax extender bill that would potentially reform pieces of the American Rescue Plan and the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. Specifically, Democrats are looking to revive a reformed version of the Child Tax Credit, which expired at the end of 2021. Republicans have advocated for a reformed Research & Development tax credit, which has bipartisan backing, including support from the New Democrat Coalition. Additionally, retirement savings reform may work its way into a tax-extender package. Three different retirement savings bills, including the EARN Act, Rise and Shine Act, and the SECURE Act, have been slated to be debated and potentially included in an omnibus funding package in December. Finally, House Ways & Means (Ways & Means) Committee Chairman Richie Neal (D-MA) has expressed interest in extending the temporary increase in the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit, and Ranking Member Kevin Brady (R-TX) has expressed bipartisan interest in the extension but would like to see the credit reformed first.
Medicare Costs, Mental Health, PREVENT Pandemics, Cures 2.0, and Pay Cuts
Following the release of the FY23 Medicare Physician Fee Schedule, many predict that Congress will work on a bipartisan basis to stop cuts to doctors’ Medicare payments in the form of a delay or an offset; it would be included in a year-end funding package. They will also seek to pass extenders for various Medicare-related expiring provisions and delay a four percent Medicare pay cut, resulting from PAYGO.
With both House Energy and Commerce (E&C) Rep. Fred Upton (R-MI) and Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions (HELP) Committee Ranking Member Richard Burr (R-NC) retiring, there may be an effort to get E&C’s Cures 2.0 and HELP’s PREVENT Pandemics across the finish line, as each was an author of their committee bill. You can read more from Foley on the PREVENT Pandemics Act here.
Several committees, particularly Senate Finance, have been working on mental health bills throughout the 117th Congress. It is likely that at least some of the bipartisan provisions, such as reimbursement and workforce expansion, could be included in the year-end funding bill. Senate Finance Chair Ron Wyden (D-OR) also noted that mental health parity, creating public-private partnerships, and eliminating ghost networks could be on the table. The House passed a bill last June that reauthorizes 30+ programs that support mental health; however, the Senate has not yet taken up the bill. It remains unclear whether they plan to do so before the end of the year.
Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Riders
A clean reauthorization of FDA user fees passed Congress in the August 2022 CR, absent any of the policy riders agreed upon in the House-passed Food and Drug Amendments of 2022 or the Senate HELP-passed FDA Safety and Landmark Advancements (FDASLA). There is interest, at least from E&C Republicans and Democrats, in pushing bipartisan provisions as riders into a year-end funding package. Among other provisions, these include modernizing the regulation of laboratory-designed and diagnostic tests, the regulation of cosmetics and dietary supplements, and increasing diversity in clinical trials. You can read more from Foley about these provisions and House and Senate bills here.
Party Leadership
Following the elections, Democrats and Republicans will hold leadership elections. The House Republican Conference will host its elections in the coming weeks, while the House Democratic Caucus is anticipated to host its elections after Thanksgiving on November 30th.
Republican Leadership
Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy is widely expected to wield the Speaker’s gavel next Congress, while Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is anticipated to retain his leadership position. Rep. Steve Scalise (R-LA) is anticipated to be elected Majority Leader, and Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) is anticipated to be reelected as Conference Chair. The Republican Whip position is currently closely contested between Rep. Tom Emmer (R-MN), the current chair of the NRCC, Rep. Drew Ferguson (R-GA), the current deputy whip, and Rep. Jim Banks (R-IN), current head of the Republican Study Conference.
Democratic Leadership
While Speaker Pelosi, Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, and Whip Jim Clyburn have led the House Democratic Caucus for years, younger Democrats have begun making their case to lead the party. Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) is expected to be a candidate for the leader of the Caucus, while Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA) may also put his hat in the ring for the job. Assistant Speaker Katherine Clark (D-MA), Democratic Caucus Vice Chair Pete Aguilar (D-CA), and Progressive Caucus Chair Pramila Jayapal (D-WA) are all expected to run for leadership positions.
Senate Committee Leadership
Senate Committee leadership will have a slight shake-up on some of its most high-profile committees.
Appropriations and HELP:
The retirement of the top Senate appropriators Patrick Leahy (D-VT) and Richard Shelby (R-AL) has left two openings on this high-profile committee. Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA) will vacate her leadership of the HELP Committee for the top Democratic slot on Appropriations, while Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) will become the new top Republican. Sen. Collins is also anticipated to take over Sen. Shelby’s role as lead Republican on the Defense Subcommittee. Sen. Collins moving to Defense and the full committee would open a spot for Republican leadership on the Transportation-HUD Subcommittee. Additionally, Sen. Roy Blunt’s (R-MO) retirement opens the top Republican spot on the Labor-HHS-Education Subcommittee. Both Sens. Jerry Moran (R-KS) and John Boozman (R-AR) are vying for both openings on the subcommittees. Additionally, the retirements of Shelby and Blunt have left two openings on the full committee, Sens. Jim Risch (R-ID) and Mike Lee (R-UT) are favorites to take their positions.
This leaves two vacancies in HELP Committee leadership, with the vacancy left by Sen. Murray and the retirement of Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC). Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) has confirmed his interest in taking the top Democrat slot, while it is unclear whether Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) will take the top Republican HELP slot or move on to a different opportunity to be the lead Republican on the Homeland Security and Government Affairs Committee (HSGAC). If the Republicans take the Senate majority and Sen. Paul does move to become Chair of HSGAC, Sen. Bill Cassidy, MD (R-LA) will be in line to become Chairman of the HELP Committee.
Budget and Banking:
Should Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) vacate his leadership of the Senate Budget Committee for the top HELP spot, Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI) will take over for Sanders on the Budget Committee. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) will retain his spot as the top Republican on the Budget Committee. Should the Democrats retain control of the Senate, Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA) will take over for Graham due to Republican term limits as Judiciary Ranking Member; Graham and Grassley will swap control of their respective committees.
Sen. Rob Portman’s (R-OH) retirement leaves an opening for a new top Republican on the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Development Committee. Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) and Sen. Mike Rounds (R-SD) are both vying for the top spot. Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) will remain the top Democrat on the committee.
House Committee Leadership
The high number of House Democrat retirements and term limits set by Republican leadership has allowed for openings on high-profile committees, including Ways & Means, Budget, Transportation & Infrastructure, and House Appropriations Subcommittees.
Ways & Means
House Ways & Means, the principal tax-writing committee in Congress, has an opening for Republicans upon Rep. Kevin Brady's (R-TX) retirement. Currently, there is a three-way race between Reps. Vern Buchanan (R-FL), Jason Smith (R-MO), and Adrian Smith (R-NE). Rep. Richie Neal (D-MA) will retain his spot as the top Democrat on the committee.
Appropriations
Leadership of the full committee is likely to be unchanged between Republican Kay Granger (R-TX) and Democrat Rosa DeLauro (D-CT); however, with retirements and close elections subcommittee leadership is likely to change. Rep. David Price’s (D-NC) retirement will leave the leadership opening on the Transportation-HUD Subcommittee. Rep. Mike Quigley (D-IL) will likely take the spot and vacate his seat as top Democrat on the Financial Services Subcommittee. Rep. Mark Pocan (D-WI) will likely take over for Quigley should he choose to take over for Price. Finally, both Republican and Democratic leaders on the Legislative Branch Subcommittee will not be returning to Congress. Rep. Mark Amodei (R-NV) will likely take over for Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler (R-WA) as the top Republican, and Rep. Ed Case (D-HI) will likely take over for Rep. Tim Ryan (D-OH) as the top Democrat.
Budget
The House Budget Committee has an opening for leadership for both the Democrats and Republicans. For the Republicans, Reps. Lloyd Smucker (R-PA), Jodey Arrington (R-TX), and Buddy Carter (R-GA) are all vying for the chair. Rep. Jason Smith has indicated that should he lose the Ways & Means race he will run for Budget chair. For the Democrats, Rep. Brendan Boyle (D-PA) is running to succeed the retiring Chairman John Yarmuth (D-KY) as the top Democrat on the committee. Rep. Brian Higgins (D-NY) has also been rumored to throw his hat in the ring for the job.
Transportation & Infrastructure (T&I)
T&I will have a high-profile status in the 118th, as funds from the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act are doled out; Del. Eleanor Holmes Norton (D-DC) and Rep. Rick Larsen (D-WA) will jockey for the Ranking Member spot following the retirement of Chairman Peter Defazio (D-OR). Rep. Sam Graves (R-MO) will likely become the committee’s new chair.
Homeland Security
Rep. John Katko’s (R-NY) retirement has left an open spot for Republican leadership on the Homeland Security Committee. This is currently a contested race between Reps. Dan Crenshaw (R-TX), Mark Green (R-TN), Scott Perry (R-PA), Michael Guest (R-MS), and Dan Bishop (R-NC). Rep. Guest will likely remain the top Republican on the House Ethics Committee and Rep. Green has decided to run for an Appropriations seat. Rep. Crenshaw is currently the top contender for the chairmanship. Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-MS) will likely remain the top Democrat on the committee.
Oversight & Reform
Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D-NY) lost her primary to colleague Rep. Jerry Nadler (D-NY) and will leave vacant the top Democratic slot on House Committee on Oversight & Reform. Current Ranking Member James Comer (R-KY) is in the lead to become chair. With jurisdiction over government management, public information, and the Postal Service, among other topics, this would be the committee that investigates the Biden administration’s handling of COVID-19, immigration at the border, and Hunter Biden, should they choose to go that route. At least two long-serving Democratic members, including Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-VA) and Rep. Stephen Lynch (D-MA), are in the running to become Ranking Member. The longest-serving Democrat on the committee, Del. Holmes-Norton, has said she is more interested in running for the top slot on House T&I.
Science, Space & Technology
The Committee on Science, Space & Technology (SST) will lose its current Chair Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson (D-TX), who is retiring from Congress. As SST provides Congressional oversight of the Department of Energy (DOE)’s energy R&D portfolio, Johnson was a big proponent of advancing the country’s hydrogen economy and stabilizing the grid. Reps. Zoe Lofgren (D-CA), Jamie Raskin (D-MD), and Suzanne Bonamici (D-OR) are all in the running for the Ranking Member spot. Current Ranking Member Frank Lucas (R-OK) is expected to become the new committee chair.
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